Tag Archives: home values gone up.

Crabtree Report Bakersfield home prices set to rise 18 percent in 2013

Bakersfield home prices are on track to rise 18 percent this year — an average increase of $30,000 per house — according to a widely read monthly report released Thursday.
Local appraiser Gary Crabtree based his forecast on dual sets of data: one on the city’s monthly price changes over the 12 months ending in January, the other on price changes over the previous two years.
His report said Bakersfield median home sale prices are on track to reach $195,000 or $196,000 by the end of this year, up from January’s $164,490 median. (The median is the point at which half the homes sold for more money and half went for less.)
Between January 2012 and last month, he noted, the city’s median sales price rose 26.5 percent.
“The forecast is a function (of) median price change ONLY,” Crabtree wrote in an email. “It assumes that conditions in the past will remain the same into the future, thus it does not take into consideration other factors that may influence price such as interest rates, availability of credit, employment, job growth, inflation (including materials or labor costs) or population growth or loss.”
He added that factors underlying the market’s improvement are lack of supply, low interest rates, realistic loan underwriting and a declining inventory of distressed properties on the market.


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The 25 Hottest Neighborhoods for 2013

Great neighborhoods are the building blocks of great cities. Together, these dense collections of utterly unique histories, cultures, tastes and attitudes combine to create larger communities greater than the sum of their already considerable parts.

That is why Zillow set out to identify which neighborhoods – regardless of the city that surrounds them – will be the hottest in 2013, based on their anticipated gains in home value between December 2012 and December 2013.

Zillow analyzed forecasted Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) data for more than 5,100 individual neighborhoods in hundreds of cities nationwide. Below are lists of the top 10 hottest neighborhoods based on expected home value appreciation, and the 10 neighborhoods expected to show the least home value appreciation.

25 Hottest ’Hoods


Gains in home values are often driven by the same factors that contribute to dynamic neighborhoods – things such as changing local demographics, proximity to popular goods and services, attractiveness of the local housing stock and local reputation. And that remains true in a general sense.

But on this list, theres an additional factor at play: plain old supply and demand. In many of the hottest neighborhoods, there is little available supply to meet robust demand from buyers either seeking a bargain or looking to live in traditionally desirable neighborhoods. As a result, prices are expected to quickly rise as buyers engage in bidding wars on the few available properties, which in turn brings up values across the board.

As you’ll see, the hottest neighborhoods list is also dominated by neighborhoods in cities – specifically, California cities – that were among those hardest-hit by the housing recession. A large number of homeowners in these areas remain trapped by negative equity – or “underwater,” owing more on their mortgage than their home is worth – and as a result have a very difficult time listing their homes for sale. This contributes significantly to the kinds of supply constraints outlined above.


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REOCON 2013: An update on short sale and REO trends


The nation turned a corner since entering a foreclosure crisis more than four years ago, analysts attending the 2013 REOCON Summit & Expo said Monday.

Speaker Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac, elaborated on 2012 short sale and REO trends when speaking to Realtors attending the conference in Dallas.

Blomquist assured the crowd, saying “Our data does show that we’re past the [foreclosure] peak.” He then went on to reveal some startling statistics in regards to REO activity. More than 10 million REO starts and nearly 5 million REO completions occurred between 2006 and 2012.

After the robo-signing controversy came to light in late 2010, the number of foreclosures in the U.S. began its downward trajectory in the first quarter of 2011. Meanwhile, the industry is beginning to see a stronger surge of short sales as REO properties slowly dissipate.

So what is causing this increase in pre-foreclosed properties? Many states are coming off artificial lows from last year thanks to foreclosure processing delays and banks are more frustrated by homes that are hitting the foreclosed status.

In some states, such as New York, the amount of time it takes to complete a foreclosure after it’s been taken by the bank is borderline unbelievable, according to Blomquist. The average number of days it takes in New York to complete a foreclosure is 1,089 days from the time the bank forecloses. The national average is 414 days.

“This is evidence that these markets are just taking longer to absorb the foreclosures,” Blomquist noted.

As a result of this lagging completion time, Blomquist believes there will be more distressed homeowners interested in listing their homes as short sales in the next six to 12 months in these markets.

In many markets, this may already be happening. Pre-foreclosure sales (short sales) increased 22% in Q3 of 2012, reaching the highest level since Q2 2011.

Click on the image below to see the distressed sales share documented by RealtyTrac.


Because of this ample supply of short sales, the average price of a short sale home dropped 5% in Q3 year-over-year.

California, Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Colorado and Nevada all saw more short sales than REO sales, according to RealtyTrac’s latest data.

Additionally, 31 states posted annual increases in non-foreclosure short sales in the third quarter of 2012.

While all evidence seems to be pointing towards short sales as the latest and greatest, Blomquist reminded the crowd that REOs are not dead just yet.

The fact is that, while banks are preferring short sales to REOs with all things being equal, not all properties can be sold via short sale.

“There are signs that some of these foreclosure start increases that we are seeing are starting to transfer into REOs,” Blomquist added.

In fact, in some states, REOs are beginning to bounce back already. North Carolina, Connecticut, Illinois, Mississippi and Florida are all seeing a rebound of REO sales.

“One of the things those states have in common is a very short foreclosure process,” said Blomquist.

Because of this dip in foreclosure inventory recently, the average sales price of an REO property rose 7% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2012.

“There’s still plenty of delinquencies out there that are coming down the pipeline,” added Blomquist.

According to RealtyTrac reports, assuming no additional properties come onto the market, there is currently a 20-month supply of bank-owned REOs. “Even if we didn’t have any more properties starting the foreclosure process, we’d still have 1.5 million properties in the waiting pool,” said Blomquist.

“It’s good to be aware of what you’re dealing with in your market,” Blomquist concluded.


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California’s median sales price reaches a 4-year high

California is seeing a housing recovery of sorts with the median sales price reaching a four-year high in July and home sales rising 15.3% from last year, the California Association of Realtors said.

The month of July brought 529,230 home sales in California, up 2% from June’s rate of 518,680 sales.

Closed escrow sales for existing, single-family homes also grew 15.3% from last year when the state’s sales pace reached 459,140 units, C.A.R added.

Looking at the median price, it reached a four-year high of $333,860 in July, up 4.2% from $320,540 in June and 12.7% from a revised $296,160 in July 2011. That’s the highest median price recorded since August 2008 when the median hit $352,730.

“It’s hard to generalize the state of California’s housing market because the markets are so diverse and are performing so differently,” said C.A.R. president LeFrancis Arnold. “REO-dominated areas such as those in the Inland Empire and Central Valley are experiencing sales constraints due to an extreme shortage of available homes. On the other hand, a robust economy in the San Francisco Bay area and a relatively larger inventory at higher price levels is helping to fuel sales and prices.”

The median price went higher as sales in the lower-range of the pricing market declined and more sales occurred in the above-$500,000 market.

“As an example, in July, sales of homes priced below $200,000 declined 9.4% from the previous year, and homes priced above $500,000 climbed 27.7% from a year ago,” CAR said.

The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home in July fell slightly from 43.4 days in June to 43.2 days in July. Last year, it took about 51.9 days to sell a home in the state.


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More failed HAMP trials end in foreclosure

Monday, January 16th, 2012, 12:00 pm


Mortgage servicers are putting more failed Home Affordable Modification Program trials through foreclosure than they were one year ago.


According to Treasury Department data released last week, 10.6% of the more that 615,000 canceled HAMP trials completed the foreclosure process as of Nov. 1. That’s more than double the 4.4% of failed HAMP trials foreclosed on as of November 2010.


While foreclosures are increasing, alternative modifications on these loans are dropping. Of the canceled HAMP trials, 39.7% went through the bank’s own private programs, down from 45.4% over the same time period, according to Treasury data.


Foreclosure completions as a percentage of borrowers never accepted into HAMP trials are lower but still increasing as well. Of the 1.8 million borrowers denied a HAMP trial, 7.6% completed the foreclosure process as of Nov. 1, up from 5% one year before.


Roughly 26.5% of these borrowers received alternative modifications, which held flat over the last year.


The increase in more foreclosure completions on failed HAMP trials occurred at nearly every large servicing shop participating in the program. Citigroup (C: 30.74 -2.72%) saw the highest jump. Of the 71,808 HAMP trials it canceled, roughly 13.5% completed the foreclosure process as of Nov. 1, up from 3.1% one year ago.


At Ally Financial (GJM: 21.32 -0.28%), the percentage increased to 12.8% from 6.4% over the same period. At JPMorgan Chase, the increase went to 11.3% from 6.2%. And at Bank of America (BAC: 6.61 -2.65%), the largest servicer in the program, 9.3% of failed HAMP trials went through foreclosure compared to just 1.9% the year before.


The highest percentage is currently held by OneWest Bank. It foreclosed on more than 19% of its roughly 20,000 failed HAMP trials, up from 10% last year.


Interestingly, Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.61 0.00%) has one of the lowest percentages of completed foreclosures on these mods at 6.7%, almost the exact same percentage one year before.


This could be a sign servicers are both skirting poorer performing private modification programs or the data is beginning to reflect these higher redefault rates.


According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, 17% of the 108,000 HAMP modifications began in the second quarter of 2010 went 60 or more days delinquent within one year. That’s compared to a 31% redefault rate for other private programs.


D. Corwyn Jackson, whose company The Corwyn Group helps to train housing counselors for foreclosure prevention, said servicers are getting mixed signals from the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae, which administers HAMP, Freddie Mac and other stakeholders across the country.


“The servicers are mandated to stick to the agreed upon foreclosure time lines by state,” Jackson said. “But other stakeholders such as nonprofit housing counseling agencies across the nation are requesting servicers during the negotiation to exhaust their loan workout options before starting the foreclosure process.”


The GSEs charge servicers for taking too long to complete the foreclosure process under specific, state-by-state guidelines. Servicers are expected to still consider the borrower for the GSE programs, but time is of the essence. BofA, for example had to pay Fannie and Freddie $1.3 billion in foreclosure delay penalties in the first nine months of 2011.


GSE policies and the failed HAMP trial foreclosure rates is beginning to show in the overall economy. Over the same time period covered by the Treasury data, the shadow inventory of homes in foreclosure or on the verge it has been declining. According to CoreLogic (CLGX: 13.48 -0.96%), roughly 1.6 million homes sit in this inventory, down from 2.1 million in November 2010.

ARTICLE LOCATED HERE: More failed HAMP trials end in foreclosure.

Write to Jon Prior.


Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.

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