Monthly Archives: February 2014

Reporting: Slipping home prices won’t last

Despite recent softening, Bakersfield’s single-family home market will likely see price increases in the 12 percent to 15 percent range this year as previously foreclosed homeowners look to buy houses again, a leading local observer predicted Tuesday.
Bakersfield appraiser Gary Crabtree made the forecast in a monthly housing update stating that median home sale prices in the city fell 6.1 percent in January to $195,250.

That median — defined as the point at which half the homes sold for more and half sold for less — was still 18.9 percent greater than the local market saw in January 2012.

The signs of cooling were fairly pronounced in January data, however. The number of home escrows that closed that month was 371, 6.5 percent less than December’s totals. Meanwhile, the inventory of homes for sale in the city grew by 1.6 percent to 945, Crabtree reported.

Cash investors who flooded the local market in recent years, sometimes squeezing out would-be homeowners, have already begun exiting the market, Crabtree noted, largely because rental prices have not kept up with local home price appreciation.
Their exit may present buying opportunities for people who lost their homes to foreclosure during the recession, even as it could hurt the rental market, Crabtree wrote.

“In 2014, I expect to see the ‘boomerang’ (previously foreclosed homeowner turned tenant) buyer replace the investors, thus supplying demand for a moderate increased in pricing,” he wrote.

“However, this will also place a downward pressure on rental prices as the single family rental vacancy (rate) increases with the loss of this market segment.”

Local residential real estate investor Frank St. Clair generally agreed with Crabtree’s assessment. The one point he disputed was the assertion that January was a slow sales month.
In fact, St. Clair said, home sales picked up noticeably in the middle of January — something Crabtree’s data wouldn’t show because they reflect transactions that can be from November and December.

“Right about the 15th (of January), it really started picking up dramatically,” he said.

The recent sales spurt looks like it could carry on through summer, St. Clair predicted, adding that he believes Crabtree is right about increasing demand from people who listed their homes to foreclosure a few years ago.

“We will get overall appreciation” as high as 15 percent this year, he said.

BY JOHN COX Californian staff writer jcox@bakersfield.com

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February 4, 2014 · 4:35 pm

Do Real Estate Prices Influence Super Bowl Appearances?

The 10 NFL teams that have appeared in the Super Bowl the most, seven are from cities with high median home prices, when compared to the national median home price. The opposite is also true; the 10 teams that have been to the Super Bowl the least, if they have even gone at all, generally come from cities with low median home prices.

The following question begs to be asked: Is there a correlation between the real estate prices of the city an NFL team comes from and the number of times that team has been to the Super Bowl?

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NFL teams From Cities with High Real Estate Prices Tend to Succeed
The following facts support the existence of a correlation between Super Bowl appearances and high real estate prices:

The 10 teams that have been to the Super Bowl the most come from cities with an average median home price (i.e., the average of the median home prices for all 10 cities) of $339,800.
The 10 teams that have been to the Super Bowl the least come from cities with an average median home price of $212,450.

The average median home price of the 10 teams that have been to the Super Bowl the most is significantly higher than the national median home price ($216,700) and the average median home price of all the cities that host NFL teams ($243,341).

Consider some examples of teams and cities that adhere to this possible correlation. San Francisco’s median home price, $751,600, is one of the highest in America. The city also hosts a team that has been to five Super Bowls. The median home price in Washington, D.C., $443,700, is twice that of the national median, and the Redskins have made five trips to the big game. One of New York’s two teams, the Giants, has been to the Super Bowl five times as well; the Big Apple has the high median home price of $517,900.

Real Estate Prices Not Always an Indicator. There are significant exceptions to this hypothetical correlation, however. The Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, and Green Bay Packers, three of the NFL’s most illustrious teams, come from cities with low median home prices. Pittsburgh, for example, has a median home price of $92,500, which is a whopping 57.3 percent lower than the national median.

There are also exceptions at the opposite end of the table. Some teams that have rarely been to the Super Bowl come from cities with very high real estate prices. Two of America’s most expensive housing markets, San Diego and Seattle, have only been to the Super Bowl once. If there really were a correlation, the Chargers and Seahawks would consistently be two of the best teams in the NFL.

Did this Correlation Exist in the 2012-2013 NFL Season? Partially. San Francisco has high real estate prices, but Baltimore does not; its median home price of $168,400 is 22.3 percent lower than the national median. If real estate prices always determined who made it to the big game, teams like the Giants, Seahawks, or even the Raiders would be playing on Feb. 3.

The teams from the cities with higher real estate prices won exactly half of the playoff games they played in. In the quarterfinals, New England and San Francisco advanced while Denver and Seattle were felled. New England then succumbed to defeat in the semifinals, yet San Francisco was able to produce a last-minute victory and advance to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Statistics
Real estate prices aside, impress your friends and family with your knowledge of America’s most popular sporting event by sharing these fun facts with them.

First Super Bowl: 1966, Green Bay Packers 35, Kansas City Chiefs 10.
Most wins: Pittsburgh Steelers, six wins (out of a total of eight appearances).
Most popular Super Bowl venue: Louisiana/Mercedes-Benz Superdome, seven Super Bowls.
Most-viewed Super Bowl: Super Bowl XLVI (2012), 111.3 million viewers.
Cost per second for commercials during upcoming Super Bowl: $133,333.
Most money bet on a Super Bowl with Vegas bookies: $94.5 million, Super Bowl XL (2006).
Average number of calories consumed per person watching the Super Bowl: 1,200.

By: Andy Fulton Jan 29, 2013

#GoSeahawks

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February 2, 2014 · 12:59 am